Predictable Consequences - Revision history

Staffan Björk at 16:05, 3 October 2016

2016-10-03T16:05:34Z

Staffan Björk at 10:32, 24 July 2016

2016-07-24T10:32:57Z

Staffan Björk at 11:02, 7 July 2016

2016-07-07T11:02:44Z

Staffan Björk at 08:05, 8 August 2015

2015-08-08T08:05:54Z

Staffan Björk at 19:48, 25 January 2015

2015-01-25T19:48:49Z

Staffan Björk: /* Using the pattern */

2015-01-14T08:51:11Z

‎Using the pattern

Staffan Björk at 08:50, 14 January 2015

2015-01-14T08:50:53Z

Staffan Björk at 13:50, 1 January 2015

2015-01-01T13:50:19Z

Staffan Björk at 10:36, 29 December 2014

2014-12-29T10:36:51Z

Staffan Björk: /* Using the pattern */

2014-08-19T13:16:38Z

‎Using the pattern

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 The most [[Predictable Consequences]] (although maybe only in the short term) are the players' own actions when they have [[Perfect Information]] of the game state and all relevant evaluation function have deterministic outcomes. After that, the most predictable actions and events are [[Ultra-Powerful Events]] controlled by the game system - at least if players know that these events can occur. If players have [[Imperfect Information]] about a part of the game state that affects the outcome of the action, the predictability is significantly reduced. For evaluation function that have different types of outcomes depending on different types of input, those using [[Arithmetic Progression]] have the most [[Predictable Consequences]]. If the evaluation functions of actions in contrast use some amount of [[Randomness]] the actions can still have some level of [[Predictable Consequences]] if the outcomes are bounded within a number of possible outcomes - and they can be made easier to predict if the [[Randomness]] is modulated by [[Fixed Distributions]], [[Skills]], or [[Stack Seeding]] (as in [[Pandemic]] for the last pattern). [[Extra Chances]] can also improve the predictability when [[Randomness]] is present since players have the possibility to force the system to randomize again if unwanted outcomes appear. [[Drafting Spreads]] increased the predictability of [[Drafting]], and more so the more elements in the spreads.
-Effects of games that can either be easy to predict or completely impossible due to player perception of the game state include [[Paper-Rock-Scissors]], [[Player Decided Results]], [[Player-Decided Distribution of Rewards & Penalties]], and [[Selectable Sets of Goals]]. Given players time to think about possible future game state can let them realize the consequences that can actually be predicted by the rules. This means that [[Downtime]], as for example experiences by players in most [[Turn-Based Games]] due to [[Turn Taking]], can modulate [[Predictable Consequences]] in the sense that it increases the likelihood that players will make used of the prediction possible in a game design.
+Effects of games that can either be easy to predict or completely impossible due to player perception of the game state include [[Paper-Rock-Scissors]], [[Player Decided Results]], [[Player-Decided Distribution of Rewards & Penalties]], and [[Selectable Set of Goals]]. Given players time to think about possible future game state can let them realize the consequences that can actually be predicted by the rules. This means that [[Downtime]], as for example experiences by players in most [[Turn-Based Games]] due to [[Turn Taking]], can modulate [[Predictable Consequences]] in the sense that it increases the likelihood that players will make used of the prediction possible in a game design.
 Even so, games that in the beginning may have little predictability can gain this during gameplay as information is revealed or resources depleted. One example of this can be found in games with [[Hands]] consisting of [[Non-Renewable Resources]], e.g. [[Cards]] in [[Contract Bridge]], since the positions of the remaining game elements becomes more and more easy to deduct as the game nears its end.
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 [[Paper-Rock-Scissors]], [[Player Decided Results]], [[Player-Decided Distribution of Rewards & Penalties]],
 [[Randomness]],
-[[Selectable Sets of Goals]],
+[[Selectable Set of Goals]],
 [[Skills]],
 [[Turn Taking]],

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 Just like it is difficult to have [[Predictable Consequences]] many actions and events ahead in a game, it is difficult to combine [[Predictable Consequences]] with [[Irreversible Events]] that have [[Delayed Effects]]. While other players' actions may have [[Predictable Consequences]] in [[Multiplayer Games]] if their goals are known and all actions themselves have [[Predictable Consequences]], if the actions are [[Anonymous Actions]] the predictable can be lost.
-For any game that has [[Predictable Consequences]], being knowledgeable about this is a form of [[Gameplay Mastery]]. Related to this is the point that being able to predict future outcomes in the game may lead to the perception of a player being more or less guaranteed to win given the current way they game in going and being played, i.e. the pattern may give rise to a [[Predictable Winner]]. Attempt of [[Speedending]] can occur due to this from the player that currently perceived himself or herself as the [[Predictable Winner]] in the short run but not in the long run.
+For any game that has [[Predictable Consequences]], being knowledgeable about this is a form of [[Gameplay Mastery]]. Related to this is the point that being able to predict future outcomes in the game may lead to the perception of a player being more or less guaranteed to win given the current way they game in going and being played, i.e. the pattern may give rise to a [[Predictable Winner]] and through this also [[Kingmaker]] situations. Attempt of [[Speedending]] can occur due to this from the player that currently perceived himself or herself as the [[Predictable Winner]] in the short run but not in the long run.
 == Relations ==
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 [[Irreversible Actions]],
 [[Gameplay Mastery]],
 [[Predictable Winner]],
 [[Speedending]],

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 == Consequences ==
-[[Predictable Consequences]] let players predict future game states and thus have [[Anticipation]] and notice [[Hovering Closures]] in games. While [[Randomness]] may make games have less [[Predictable Consequences]] in the short term, those that are built around playing many [[Minigames]] or rounds, like [[Poker]] or [[Craps]], have [[Predictable Consequences]] regarding statistical distributions. This may help in calculating odds for [[Betting]] although it is a common fallacy to believe that previous results affect the probability of future results in memoryless randomizing systems like [[Roulette]]. [[Predictable Consequences]] can thereby generally makes a game have a more [[Determinable Chance to Succeed]], and make it easier for players to realize what this chance is. This let players be able to make more informed [[Risk/Reward]] choices, which can provide [[Strategic Knowledge]] and support [[Cognitive Engrossment]], [[Stimulated Planning]], [[Strategic Planning]], and make it somewhat more likely that players create [[Uncommitted Alliances]]. [[Predictable Consequences]] are a motivation for players to engage in [[Investments]] and are most apparent, although possibly not most profitable, in games using [[Arithmetic Progression]] for the [[Investments]]. They can also encourage players to perform actions with [[Delayed Effects]] since it is easier to consider their worth when they have [[Predictable Consequences]]. Regardless of what the [[Predictable Consequences]] relate to, the presence of the pattern can make players have [[Internal Conflicts]] of what actions to do.
+[[Predictable Consequences]] let players predict future game states and thus have [[Anticipation]] and notice [[Hovering Closures]] in games. Noticing these [[Hovering Closures]] naturally affect how [[Closure Points]] will be experienced. While [[Randomness]] may make games have less [[Predictable Consequences]] in the short term, those that are built around playing many [[Minigames]] or rounds, like [[Poker]] or [[Craps]], have [[Predictable Consequences]] regarding statistical distributions. This may help in calculating odds for [[Betting]] although it is a common fallacy to believe that previous results affect the probability of future results in memoryless randomizing systems like [[Roulette]]. [[Predictable Consequences]] can thereby generally makes a game have a more [[Determinable Chance to Succeed]], and make it easier for players to realize what this chance is. This let players be able to make more informed [[Risk/Reward]] choices, which can provide [[Strategic Knowledge]] and support [[Cognitive Engrossment]], [[Stimulated Planning]], [[Strategic Planning]], and make it somewhat more likely that players create [[Uncommitted Alliances]]. [[Predictable Consequences]] are a motivation for players to engage in [[Investments]] and are most apparent, although possibly not most profitable, in games using [[Arithmetic Progression]] for the [[Investments]]. They can also encourage players to perform actions with [[Delayed Effects]] since it is easier to consider their worth when they have [[Predictable Consequences]]. Regardless of what the [[Predictable Consequences]] relate to, the presence of the pattern can make players have [[Internal Conflicts]] of what actions to do.
 When games have [[Predictable Consequences]] of the immediate actions that players can perform but [[Limited Foresight]] to the complex effects of the actions combined, this can encourage [[Experimenting]] and lead to [[Surprises]]. [[Predictable Consequences]] can in some cases cause [[Analysis Paralysis]] as players can plan ahead better and are thereby likely to try and make use of this possibility to the extent that it interfere with the gameplay of other players.
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 === Can Modulate ===
 [[Betting]],
 [[Damage]],
 [[Delayed Effects]],

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 Just like it is difficult to have [[Predictable Consequences]] many actions and events ahead in a game, it is difficult to combine [[Predictable Consequences]] with [[Irreversible Events]] that have [[Delayed Effects]]. While other players' actions may have [[Predictable Consequences]] in [[Multiplayer Games]] if their goals are known and all actions themselves have [[Predictable Consequences]], if the actions are [[Anonymous Actions]] the predictable can be lost.
-For any game that has [[Predictable Consequences]], being knowledgeable about this is a form of [[Game Mastery]]. Related to this is the point that being able to predict future outcomes in the game may lead to the perception of a player being more or less guaranteed to win given the current way they game in going and being played, i.e. the pattern may give rise to a [[Predictable Winner]]. Attempt of [[Speedending]] can occur due to this from the player that currently perceived himself or herself as the [[Predictable Winner]] in the short run but not in the long run.
+For any game that has [[Predictable Consequences]], being knowledgeable about this is a form of [[Gameplay Mastery]]. Related to this is the point that being able to predict future outcomes in the game may lead to the perception of a player being more or less guaranteed to win given the current way they game in going and being played, i.e. the pattern may give rise to a [[Predictable Winner]]. Attempt of [[Speedending]] can occur due to this from the player that currently perceived himself or herself as the [[Predictable Winner]] in the short run but not in the long run.
 == Relations ==
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 [[Internal Conflicts]],
 [[Irreversible Actions]],
-[[Game Mastery]],
+[[Gameplay Mastery]],
 [[Predictable Winner]],
 [[Speedending]],

@@ Line 45: / Line 45: @@
 Just like it is difficult to have [[Predictable Consequences]] many actions and events ahead in a game, it is difficult to combine [[Predictable Consequences]] with [[Irreversible Events]] that have [[Delayed Effects]]. While other players' actions may have [[Predictable Consequences]] in [[Multiplayer Games]] if their goals are known and all actions themselves have [[Predictable Consequences]], if the actions are [[Anonymous Actions]] the predictable can be lost.
-For any game that has [[Predictable Consequences]], being knowledgeable about this is a form of [[Game Mastery]]. Related to this is the point that being able to predict future outcomes in the game may lead to the perception of a player being more or less guaranteed to win given the current way they game in going and being played, i.e. the pattern may give rise to a [[Predictable Winner]].
+For any game that has [[Predictable Consequences]], being knowledgeable about this is a form of [[Game Mastery]]. Related to this is the point that being able to predict future outcomes in the game may lead to the perception of a player being more or less guaranteed to win given the current way they game in going and being played, i.e. the pattern may give rise to a [[Predictable Winner]]. Attempt of [[Speedending]] can occur due to this from the player that currently perceived himself or herself as the [[Predictable Winner]] in the short run but not in the long run.
 == Relations ==
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 [[Game Mastery]],
 [[Predictable Winner]],
 [[Stimulated Planning]],
 [[Strategic Knowledge]],

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 == Using the pattern ==
 [[Predictable Consequences]] is used in games primarily to make it easy for players to understand how they can affect the game state or game world through their actions, which in turn can be wanted to make the players have [[Anticipation]] or [[Hovering Closures]], or make them engage in [[Stimulated Planning]] or [[Strategic Planning]].
-[[Predictable Consequences]] of individual actions can also be used create [[Complex Gameplay]] since players can start to analyze long sequences for actions logically, but when this is done in games with many game components or no uncertainty it can remove the [[Predictable Consequences]] on the holistic level of a game instance; prime examples of this is [[Chess] and [[Go]] where each individual move has totally [[Predictable Consequences]] for what the game state will be after the move but where the complexity of the game as a whole makes it basically impossible to know exactly what consequences an early or mid-game move will have on the final game state.
+[[Predictable Consequences]] of individual actions can also be used create [[Complex Gameplay]] since players can start to analyze long sequences for actions logically, but when this is done in games with many game components or no uncertainty it can remove the [[Predictable Consequences]] on the holistic level of a game instance; prime examples of this is [[Chess]] and [[Go]] where each individual move has totally [[Predictable Consequences]] for what the game state will be after the move but where the complexity of the game as a whole makes it basically impossible to know exactly what consequences an early or mid-game move will have on the final game state.
 How [[Predictable Consequences]] actions and events are used in game designs depends mainly on who performs or influences them: the game system or players. The predictability of game systems can vary as much as that of the predictability of opponents but can also be fixed so that players are aware of them before the actions or events are initiated. Generally, [[Randomness]] and [[Uncertainty of Information]] can modulate so games have less or no [[Predictable Consequences]]. [[Critical Results]] in the form of [[Critical Failures]] or [[Critical Successes]] are examples of this, and [[Critical Hits]], [[Critical Misses]], and [[Variable Accuracy]] are three specific ways this can be done in [[Combat]]. [[Open-Ended Die Rolls]] is a specific example on how [[Dice]] rolls can become more unpredictable.

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 [[Complex Gameplay]],
 [[Critical Hits]],
 [[Delayed Effects]],
 [[Imperfect Information]],

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 Even so, games that in the beginning may have little predictability can gain this during gameplay as information is revealed or resources depleted. One example of this can be found in games with [[Hands]] consisting of [[Non-Renewable Resources]], e.g. [[Cards]] in [[Contract Bridge]], since the positions of the remaining game elements becomes more and more easy to deduct as the game nears its end.
 === Interface Aspects ===
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 [[Outcome Indicators]] provide a means to give players [[Direct Information]] that supports [[Predictable Consequences]] within a game, but this probably violates the [[Diegetic Consistency]].
 === Narrative Aspects ===