Predictable Winner
-- WORK IN PROGRESS --
Games where the players can perceive who is very likely to win given the current gameplay circumstances.
Games typically rely on keeping gamers interested by letting them have a chance of winning, even if this chance may be very small. This is however countered for those that can perceive that one player is very likely to win - even if this may be themselves - and worsens the more of an public consensus that is achieved regarding who is the Predictable Winner.
This pattern is subjective since be able to understand if there is a player with strong likelihood to win may depend on cognitive abilities and gameplay skill.
Contents
Examples
The game First to 12 is rarely played since the second player will win if he or she knows the optimal strategy. Tic-Tac-Toe can also be said to have the pattern since if both players are playing optimally, nobody will win (so the Predictable Winner is nobody).
Using the pattern
Games are rarely designed to have a Predictable Winner, but it may occur either because some players can have Gameplay Mastery while other do not or through the possibility of Kingmakers. For this reason, design choices regarding Predictable Winner usually concerns avoiding it or handling it when it occurs.
Imperfect Information can be used to make it more difficult to judge to relative positions of players if the information is directly related to the winning conditions. Exaggerated Perception of Influence can do the same by giving misinformation regarding players' actual chances of succeeding with goals and actions in the game. Randomness can achieve both, but players with knowledge about statistics may be able to use this to be able to make reliable predictions anyway if enough random events are involved in the gameplay.
Situations where players see a Predictable Winner can be handled in different ways. Drop-In/Drop-Out gameplay can allow losing players to avoid having to continue while still providing gameplay for those believed to win and those not convinced of the inevitability of the outcome, while Surrendering can either prematurely end gameplay or at least specific gameplay parts.
Can Be Modulated By
Potentially Conflicting With
Exaggerated Perception of Influence, Imperfect Information, Randomness, Tension
Consequences
Relations
Can Instantiate
Can Modulate
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Can Be Instantiated By
Can Be Modulated By
Beat the Leader, Drop-In/Drop-Out, Surrendering
Possible Closure Effects
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Potentially Conflicting With
Exaggerated Perception of Influence, Imperfect Information, Randomness, Tension
History
New pattern created in this wiki.
References
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Acknowledgements
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