Predictable Winner
-- WORK IN PROGRESS --
Games where the players can perceive who is very likely to win given the current gameplay circumstances.
Games typically rely on keeping gamers interested by letting them have a chance of winning, even if this chance may be very small. This is however countered for those that can perceive that one player is very likely to win - even if this may be themselves - and worsens the more of an public consensus that is achieved regarding who is the Predictable Winner.
This pattern is subjective since be able to understand if there is a player with strong likelihood to win may depend on cognitive abilities and gameplay skill. Another reason is that the predictability can depend on players' strategies, it may well be that there may be a Predictable Winner if all players continue having the strategies they currently have but that this changes as soon as a few or even one player changes the way they play.
Contents
Examples
The game First to 12 is rarely played since the second player will win if he or she knows the optimal strategy. Tic-Tac-Toe can also be said to have the pattern since if both players are playing optimally, nobody will win (so the Predictable Winner is nobody).
Using the pattern
The concept of a Predictable Winner requires that several players are competing, so the pattern requires Multiplayer Games with Competitions or Conflicts and can be seen as modulating these. That said, games are rarely designed to have a Predictable Winner but it may occur either because some players can have Gameplay Mastery while other do not or through the possibility of Kingmakers. For this reason, design choices regarding Predictable Winner usually concerns avoiding it or handling it when it occurs.
Imperfect Information can be used to make it more difficult to judge to relative positions of players if the information is directly related to the winning conditions. Exaggerated Perception of Influence can do the same by giving misinformation regarding players' actual chances of succeeding with goals and actions in the game. Randomness can achieve both, but players with knowledge about statistics may be able to use this to be able to make reliable predictions anyway if enough random events are involved in the gameplay.
Situations where players see a Predictable Winner can be handled in different ways. Drop-In/Drop-Out gameplay can allow losing players to avoid having to continue while still providing gameplay for those believed to win and those not convinced of the inevitability of the outcome, while Surrendering can either prematurely end gameplay or at least specific gameplay parts.
In games where an advantage for a player depends on the strategies of other players (including simply not working against the leader), the Beat the Leader pattern is likely to emerge from players changing strategies but this can be encourages by game designs by providing specific Rewards.
Consequences
As stated above, players are likely to adopt Beat the Leader tactics if at all possible when Predictable Winner situations occurs. Less likely but potentially more problematic is that players in positions they consider hopeless turn to Kingmaker solutions.
There are several patterns that make the presence of a Predictable Winner less likely due to being incompatible with them. These include Exaggerated Perception of Influence, Imperfect Information, and Randomness, which were mentioned above since they can be put into designs to avoid Predictable Winner. Tension is another pattern difficult to combine with Predictable Winner (although conceivably there can be Tension regarding who will be second in a game, etc.) but the addition of Tension to a game does not have any typically causality towards making Predictable Winner less likely to emerge. The reserve is however true, the presence of Predictable Winner is likely to remove any Tension that exists regarding the winning position.
Predictable Winner and Unwinnable Games are incompatible in the typical case when the both patterns refer to the same concept of winning. This may not necessarily be the case, players can compete against each other in Unwinnable Games such as Tetris or Pinball Games to see to gets the highest score.
Relations
Can Instantiate
Can Modulate
Multiplayer Games with Competitions or Conflicts
Can Be Instantiated By
Can Be Modulated By
Beat the Leader, Drop-In/Drop-Out, Surrendering
Possible Closure Effects
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Potentially Conflicting With
Exaggerated Perception of Influence, Imperfect Information, Randomness, Tension, Unwinnable Games
History
New pattern created in this wiki.
References
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Acknowledgements
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