Determinable Chance to Succeed

Game support that lets players have ways of judging the chance for success or failure they have with their actions.

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For games to be interesting to play, players must feel that they can influence the outcome of the game. Being able to affect the outcome means that players can also choose what sort of outcome they wish the game to have, and that they have a Perceived Chance to Succeed with their intentions. Players do not actually have to have a chance to succeed for a game to be interesting; the important part is that they believe that they have.

Examples

Simple betting games such as Roulette or various dice games always give players a chance to win, and players usually can know the exact percentage that they will win. In contrast, players can have hands in most forms of Poker that appear to be able to win when they in fact may not be, due to the cards that have already been dealt.

Most computer games can either not be won at all or guarantee that there are ways to win. In the latter case, players know that there exists a chance to succeed in completing the game, but the perception of that possibility for them is mainly due to their perception of their own skills compared to the difficulty of the game.

V.A.T.S system in Fallout 3 and Fallout: New Vegas

Using the pattern

Giving players a Determinable Chance to Succeed requires that games offer them a Freedom of Choice between actions or goals and that their actions in the game have Predictable Consequences. However, having a Determinable Chance to Succeed with several different actions gives a Freedom of Choice, so the patterns affect each other on different levels, e.g. regarding choices between the ways actions can be tried and why actions should be performed. Player Decided Results are an example of how players can be guaranteed to influence the game, although not necessarily in a way that lets all players have influence.

Players' basic perception of their chance to succeed is usually based on Strategic Knowledge, the Skills of their Characters, and if they feel games have Player Balance. Similar to Player Balance, Smooth Learning Curves can make players continuously feel that they have a Determinable Chance to Succeed throughout a game. Although Perfect Information naturally gives players a Perceived Chance to Succeed that is equal to the actual chance to succeed, this may dissuade players from trying if the chance is small or nonexistent. In these cases, Imperfect Information can instead be used to show, or give the illusion, that players have a chance to succeed and thereby encourage players to try determine what that chance is. Note that the chance perceived by players do not need to be correct, and if players are likely to think they have higher chances than they do this pattern supports Exaggerated Perception of Influence.

Players' possibility to perceive the chances to succeed with specific abilities can easily be modulated negatively during gameplay with Ability Losses and Decreased Abilities, and positively by New Abilities and Improved Abilities. This is most easily done while maintaining a Consistent Reality Logic by using Tools but may also be due to Character Development. Player Decided Results always guarantee that at least some players have an influence on the results and thereby a Perceived Chance to Succeed in gaining the results they wish, although the results typically become compromises.

If players have several ways of succeeding, which can be modulated through Ability Losses and New Abilities, the Perceived Chance to Succeed may be under the players' control. This increases players' Freedom of Choice but may require players to make Tradeoffs, Risk/Reward choices, or experience Social Dilemmas. Cut Scenes can give players information on how they should act and thereby increase their perceived chance. The actual performance of actions in the game can provide players with the Perceived Chance to Succeed with the following actions through Illusionary Rewards, Near Miss Indicators, and Progress Indicators.

Game Masters have a strong impact on players Perceived Chance to Succeed: they can either make attempted actions automatic successes, automatic failures, or let the success depend on Randomness with the possible influence of Skill. Automatic successes instantiate Player Decided Results and possibly Creative Control, although players may not be aware of this to maintain Tension and maintain other players' Illusion of Influence or Perceived Chance to Succeed. Automatic failures may be necessary to maintain Narrative Structures but can be done without breaking players' Illusion of Influence if the way of determining the evaluation function is hidden from the players, for example, by rolling Dice behind a Game Master's screen.

Surprises and Ultra-Powerful Events are examples of events that may ruin players Perceived Chance to Succeed while Leaps of Faith are actions that players have to perform without having a strong Perceived Chance to Succeed.

Can Be Instantiated By

Cutscenes, Extra Chances,

Game mechanisms that hide or manipulate players chance of succeeding works against having a Determinable Chance to Succeed. This includes Balancing Effects, Fudged Results, and Exaggerated Perception of Influence. Challenging Gameplay can make players so focused on handling the challenges so they cannot reflect on their chances of succeeding, so this pattern can also work against Determinable Chance to Succeed. Enemies can do this as well by having unknown capabilities or unknown possibilities to succeed, by these can also be used to increase or decrease the determinability. Randomness can in a similar faction affect players possibility to determine their chances of success, so this pattern can also modulate Determinable Chance to Succeed.

Consequences

Having a Determinable Chance to Succeed gives players influence, which can become an Exaggerated Perception of Influence (which in turn actually can work against having a proper Determinable Chance to Succeed). When this lets player feel that they have a chance to succeed, this can in turn led to Emotional Engrossment as well as Anticipation and Tension.

Relations

Can Instantiate

Anticipation, Exaggerated Perception of Influence, Emotional Engrossment, Tension

Can Modulate

Freedom of Choice

Can Be Instantiated By

Cutscenes, Extra Chances, Freedom of Choice, Imperfect Information, Perfect Information, Player Balance, Player Decided Results, Predictable Consequences, Skills, Smooth Learning Curves, Strategic Knowledge

Can Be Modulated By

Ability Losses, Decreased Abilities, Enemies, Improved Abilities, New Abilities, Randomness

Possible Closure Effects

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Potentially Conflicting With

Balancing Effects, Challenging Gameplay, Enemies, Exaggerated Perception of Influence, Fudged Results

History

A patterns based upon the pattern Perceived Chance to Succeed that was part of the original collection in the book Patterns in Game Design.