Player Unpredictability
The limit on what will happen in future gameplay due to not knowing how other players will act.
This pattern is a still a stub.
Contents
Examples
starting strategy Starcraft series League of Legends
army and deck building Warhammer 40K Magic: The Gathering Hearthstone
traitors Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game Dead of Winter Shadows over Camelot
choices and programming Roborally Race for the Galaxy
Using the pattern
The basic requirement for Player Unpredictability is that there are other players that can be unpredictable, i.e. Multiplayer Games is a necessary but not sufficient requirement for having the pattern in a game.
While games like Chess and Go shows that one can have Player Unpredictability in games with Perfect Information, the use of Imperfect and Asymmetric Information - often combined with Uncertainty of Information - lets games not that dependent on predicting opponents exact movements also have Player Unpredictability. Given each player Secret Goals is another direct way of providing Player Unpredictability, as is requiring actions or activities that rely on being deceitful or manipulative, e.g. Betrayal, Bluffing, or Negotiation.
Several patterns work against Player Unpredictability. Strategic Knowledge can make it more obvious what other players will do for the player that have this, while Dominant Strategy and Predictable Winner can make it completely obvious what a player which is winning will do in the future.
Player/Character Skill Composites and Player/System Action Composites can be used to modulate Player Unpredictability since part of what a player does or how well that player does an action becomes determined by algorithms; this effect on the pattern is more pronounced in games where one can have Strategic Knowledge about how the composites work. No Direct Player Influence affects Player Unpredictability in another matter, namely that one will only get to know what other players actually did after one no longer can take direct actions against them.
Consequences
Player Unpredictability has many effects on gameplay. First, it causes an Uncertainty of Outcome of due to Limited Foresight or Limited Planning Ability, or causes these two patterns through the uncertainty. Second, it typically leads to Stimulated Planning and Cognitive Engrossment as players need to engage in judgments on the possible Risk/Reward situations they are aware of. Third, is can lead of Analysis Paralysis due to the difficulties that can arise from trying to do this planning. Finally, it can lead to Surprises.
Player Unpredictability can make Cooperation more difficult since players cannot as easily assume what other players will be doing.
Relations
Can Instantiate
Cognitive Engrossment, Limited Foresight, Limited Planning Ability, Risk/Reward, Stimulated Planning, Surprises, Uncertainty of Outcome
Can Modulate
Analysis Paralysis, Cooperation
Can Be Instantiated By
Betrayal, Bluffing, Multiplayer Games, Negotiation, Secret Goals, Uncertainty of Information
Asymmetric Information together with Imperfect Information
Can Be Modulated By
No Direct Player Influence, Player/Character Skill Composites, Player/System Action Composites
Possible Closure Effects
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Potentially Conflicting With
Dominant Strategy, Predictable Winner, Strategic Knowledge
History
New pattern created in this wiki. However, the pattern is based on the concept of player unpredictability described in Costikyan's book Uncertainty in Games[1].
References
Acknowledgements
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