Predictable Consequences

The possibility to predict how game states will change due to actions or events.

When players can understand how actions and events affect the game state of a game, those actions and events have Predictable Consequences. This does not mean that players can predict everything that will happen - a game can have Predictable Consequences without players being able to exactly predict what action is going to be performed or what effects an action can have in the long term. A game can also be predictable in another sense if players can anticipate the set of possible actions other players can perform, and actions can be predictable if players can imagine the set of possible future game states their effects can produce.

Examples

The actions in Chess and Go have completely Predictable Consequences since the effects of them are completely predetermined and knowledgeable for those with an understanding of the game rules. This does not mean that the outcome of actions are predictable for more than a few more though, as the number of possibilities quickly become too large to explore and one cannot be sure of what actions one's opponent will make. Even so, skilled players can predict opponents' actions to a high degree and planning many actions ahead based upon this.

The actions in first-person shooters often contain no elements of chance and thereby have totally Predictable Consequences. However, being able to perform these actions is not easy for a player, especially when one has to anticipate other players' actions and these actions often have the intention of disrupting the player.

Using the pattern

How Predictable Consequences actions and events are used in game designs depends mainly on who performs or influences them: the game system or players. The predictability of game systems can vary as much as that of the predictability of opponents but can also be fixed so that players are aware of them before the actions or events are initiated. Providing the Right Level of Complexity is also important when considering Predictable Consequences: games that have Predictable Consequences for individual actions and events can lose that predictability when the complexity increases, for example, by having few Closure Points that reduce the potential game space or allowing long and dynamic Producer-Consumer chains.

The most Predictable Consequences (although maybe only in the short term) are the players' own actions when they have Perfect Information of the game state and the evaluation function is static. If the evaluation of the action uses some amount of Randomness, the action can still have Predictable Consequences, but since the outcomes are bounded within a number of possible outcomes, players have Uncertainty of Information about the exact outcome. The same applies to Indirect Control if the time difference between the action and the outcome is great enough. If players have Imperfect Information about a part of the game state that affects the outcome of the action, the predictability immediately is significantly reduced.

After that, the most predictable actions and events are Ultra-Powerful Events controlled by the game system. Effects that require Perceivable Margins are Predictable Consequences in one sense, since players may observe that the margin is close to being fulfilled. Damage and other Penalties usually also have very predictable consequences since experiencing unexpected Penalties, especially Individual Penalties, may cause players to simply stop playing the game. Investments also usually have a range of Predictable Consequences, even if they chances of gaining on the Investments may be small, as players otherwise would be unwilling to make the Investments. Surprises caused by the game system, which the first time they are experienced are intended not to be predictable, actually also easily become predictable after the first encounter. The effects of Leaps of Faiths and Irreversible Actions are likewise difficult to predict the first time they are done but then might become easy to predict.

Effects of games that can either be easy to predict or completely impossible due to player perception of the game state include Selectable Sets of Goals, Paper-Rock-Scissors, Player-Decided Distribution of Rewards & Penalties, and Player Decided Results. The use of Randomness can give more Predictable Consequences, especially when used together with Skills, than actions from other players since the distribution of the Randomness can be known in advance. This means that even games that are initially associated with Luck can become very predictable and have Strategic Knowledge, especially regarding Betting.

Predictable Consequences from game systems can be achieved indirectly through Consistent Reality Logic, Alternative Reality, and Illusionary Rewards. In these cases, players experiencing them can understand how future actions and effects will affect the game state without necessarily having experienced the actions and effects themselves. In contrast, Outcome Indicators provide a means to give players Direct Information to support Predictable Consequences within a game, but this violates the Consistent Reality Logic.

Games with Limited Planning Ability have some part of their game design constructed so that players cannot accurately foresee future game states, and thereby cannot have Predictable Consequences regarding at least part of the game state.

Can Be Instantiated By

Agents, Algorithmic Agents, Arithmetic Progression, Development Time, Extra Chances, Stack Seeding, Thematic Consistency

Can Be Modulated By

Analysis Paralysis, Randomness, Turn-Based Games

Consequences

Predictable Consequences let players predict future game states and thus have Anticipation and notice Hovering Closures in games. Having Predictable Consequences makes a game have a more Determinable Chance to Succeed, and makes it easier for players to realize what this chance is. This let players be able to make more informed Risk/Reward choices, which can provide Strategic Knowledge and support Cognitive Engrossment, Stimulated Planning, Strategic Planning, and make it somewhat more likely that players create Uncommitted Alliances. Predictable Consequences are a requirement for Investments and are most apparent in games using Arithmetic Rewards for Investments.

When games have Predictable Consequences of the immediate actions that players can perform but Limited Foresight to the complex effects of the actions combined, this can encourage Experimenting and lead to Surprises. Predictable Consequences can in some cases cause Analysis Paralysis as the players can better plan ahead.

Internal Conflicts, Game Mastery,

Can Modulate

Turn Taking

Potentially Conflicting With

Anonymous Actions

Irreversible Events when that pattern is used together with Delayed Effects

Relations

Can Instantiate

Anticipation, Cognitive Engrossment, Determinable Chance to Succeed, Hovering Closures, Internal Conflicts, Game Mastery, Stimulated Planning, Strategic Knowledge, Strategic Planning

Can Modulate

Risk/Reward, Turn Taking, Uncommitted Alliances

Can Be Instantiated By

Agents, Algorithmic Agents, Arithmetic Progression, Development Time, Extra Chances, Stack Seeding, Thematic Consistency

Can Be Modulated By

Analysis Paralysis, Randomness, Turn-Based Games

Potentially Conflicting With

Anonymous Actions

Irreversible Events when that pattern is used together with Delayed Effects

History

An updated version of the pattern Predictable Consequences that was part of the original collection in the book Patterns in Game Design.

Acknowledgements

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